Skepulating: The Future of Automobile Transportation

This is my first (and hopefully not the only) post under the category of "Skepulating," where I will speculate skeptically on topics I find interesting. Today, I'm choosing the topic of Google's autonomous cars.

Cars that Drive Themselves

Perhaps you're not much of a science fan or maybe you just overlooked it. If so, you might have missed one of the most interesting things to come from Google since the powerful search engine or the Android OS (and the slew of phones which use it). Back in October of 2010, Google announced that it had a fleet of autonomous vehicles that had logged over 140,000 miles without any accidents. At that time, Google's goal was to solve really big problems through technology (of course now their mission is to take over the world). The announcement was their new goal to improve driver safety. Most people who fly know that it is much safer than driving. How much safer, you ask? Try about 50 times safer! The statistics of being killed in a car accident in the US are about 1 in 6500 for a year, and over a 78 year life expectancy that works out to about 1 in 83. I don't like those odds. Can we all agree that cars are dangerous? I mean, you're controlling a machine which weighs thousands of pounds, at anywhere from 25-80mph down a path crowded with obstacles, signals and other ever-changing conditions. Almost all accidents are made through human error and as Google's CEO at the time said, "It's a shame that the car was invented before the computer."

No it looks okay... you can barely tell it's there.

Since the announcement, Google's fleet has been traveling over some of California's most freighting and winding highways. They are loaded with high tech systems including multiple cameras, radar and a laser range finder. The cars also use navigation provided by Google Maps, which is updated constantly by thousands of manual drivers around the world.

Let Us... Skepulate

All this got me thinking – and quite excitedly too. Driving is something I have gotten used to over the years. It's not something I usually do for recreation, but I'm far from hiring a personal driver. It's a necessity for most Americans. It's part of our culture and we take pride in our vehicles. Not many of us will choose a car based solely on economy or efficiency. It's got to look nice too, because our vehicles are an extension of ourselves. How many people drive huge trucks and SUVs to haul lots of kids or equipment around?

I just hope it doesn't go in this direction...

Autonomous vehicles might have the unintended consequence of changing our car-loving culture. First of all, cars will be designed much differently. If you want a fully automatic vehicle, you have no need for a steering wheel, pedals, shifters... even headlights. Cars could be designed more like the rear of a limousine, where seats are arranged in a square shape. Another fundamental change in our driving culture would be the idea of needing your own vehicle. When I first heard about this technology, I pictured a future in which we buy some self-driving car, and used it for ourselves in our day-to-day tasks. After talking with a friend of mine, however, the picture changed. Think about this: Would you really need your own vehicle if you could have one on demand? You could just get on your phone or computer and request a vehicle to pick you up (you could schedule them well in advance as well). Just like a taxi, you could use it as long or for whatever you want. Maybe you could request a smaller car for just yourself or a large van for you and your family. When you reach your destination, you could exit the vehicle and it would go wherever it was needed. Imagine being able to relax on your way to work. You could eat, talk to fellow passengers, read a book or even sleep! Had a few too many celebrating with friends one night? You'll get home safe with the computer at the helm!

The cars won't be the only thing to change though. Traffic signs and signals could basically be eliminated if all cars were automated. Of course, the transition will probably be over years, so maybe at first we'll see special lanes on roads and highways for the driver-less cars. Street lights could also be obsolete saving energy and reducing overall light pollution.

I will never trust my life to something this creepy though...

Of course, nothing is perfect. Computers can make mistakes as well. What happens when the network goes down? Are you left at home calling into work because there are no cars available to pick you up? One of the most negative impacts I foresee though, would be in the industry of commercial drivers. I'm not just talking about the personal driver I mentioned earlier, but think about all the drivers in the world who would basically be out of the job. Taxi drivers would probably be the first to go since this technology started with everyday cars. I'm sure bus and semi drivers could be replaced eventually as well. I would be a little freighted if I was in their shoes. Maybe not right away, but perhaps in 10 years, they could all be out of work. But when it comes to saving lives (and we're talking about 30,000 per year), I think we have no choice.

Resistance is Futile

Imagine if there was a company, or even dozens of companies, that offered these cars as taxis. Maybe they could get special bulk discounts from car manufacturers and discounts on maintenance and fuel. Let's do some quick math, shall we? A company could buy a fleet of vehicles for $10,000 each (let's say they are 4-door sedans). Maybe they could get 300,000 miles out of them before they sold them for scrap. If the cars got about 25 miles per gallon fuel efficiency, they would use 12,000 gallons of fuel in their lifespan, which, at $4 cost per gallon of gas (assuming future bulk pricing) would add $48,000 to the cost of the vehicle. Let's add another $10,000 in lifetime maintenance costs just for good measure and another $5000 for taxes and licensing. That brings the total cost of the vehicle for the company to $73,000. The companies cost of a single vehicle per mile would be less than $0.25. The company could charge $0.50 per mile and still make a significant profit. (Of course, my numbers are all completely made up, much like in the famous Drake Equation, where many of the variables are assumed). The total average miles driven per person is about 13,500 according to the US Department of Transportation. At the price of $0.50 per mile that works out to over $500 per month. That may seem like a lot, but if you calculated the total cost of your own vehicle, you'll probably find that it is the same or higher. And maybe that would also influence us to change our ways. We might drive less or more efficiently, carpool, or maybe mass transportation such as buses could become even more popular. All in all, this doesn't look good for car companies, who rely on our current car-loving (and buying) culture.

One thing I know for certain: Cars are going to change. Completely autonomous vehicles may be a decade away, but that doesn't mean it will be a night and day transition. We may see cars that can react to impacts before they happen by taking control briefly. There already exists a model from Honda which can keep your car between lines on the highway much like your cruise control can maintain your speed. I don't know about you, but I look forward to the day when I can take a nap or watch a movie on a long trip.